NFL Week 11 picks, odds, bets
The Chiefs and Bills renew their annual rivalry when they face off in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon.
Kansas City remains the only undefeated team at 9-0, and this will likely be the last time during the regular season that the Chiefs will find themselves in an underdog role.
While coaches tend to have different thoughts on approaching an undefeated campaign, there is some thought that you’re better off losing during the regular season than having your first loss occur during the playoffs.
As a result, this game might be less important to the Chiefs in the grand scheme of things.
In this preview, we’ll revisit the head-to-head matchups in this series and explore why Bills quarterback Josh Allen tends to save his best performances for these big games.
Here are my Bills vs Chiefs best bets.
Chiefs vs. Bills odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | +2 (-108) | +110 | Over 46 (-108) |
| Bills | -2 (-112) | -130 | Under 46 (-108) |
Chiefs vs. Bills prediction
Chiefs outlook
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown nine interceptions through nine games and is five away from his career high of 14 last season.
However, his completion rate of 69.5% is also a career-best.
According to Robby Greerre’s quarterback rankings, Mahomes even has a Completion Over Expectation (CPOE) rate of 4.1%.
Thus, while Mahomes is recording more interceptions, he’s still throwing the ball with a high degree of accuracy.
And when you look at the all-encompassing Total QBR metric, Mahomes ranks fifth with a 67.6 value.
Even when Mahomes posted his worst Total QBR (63.9) last season, the Chiefs still won their second-straight title.
While we’ve become almost wholly data-driven in sports today, it’s clear that the numbers fail to tell the complete story with the Chiefs.
As a result, we can’t overlook that there are intangibles at play here with the Chiefs, such as the continuity with their coaching staff and innate ability to rise to the occasion during the game’s pivotal moments.
Bills outlook
Allen is having another stellar season, and it’s hard to imagine that he’s yet to win an MVP award.
This season, he’s thrown 17 touchdowns and even rushed for four on the ground with just four interceptions. He boasts a 70.2 Total QBR, putting him fourth in that category.
The Bills sit atop the AFC East at 8-2 and rank in the top 10 of both offense and defensive DVOA metrics.
Allen has gotten the best of Mahomes in the regular season meetings, posting a 3-1 mark.
However, he’s yet to get past his nemesis in the playoffs, where he is 0-3.
Where the Bills have struggled against Kansas City has often been a lack of execution or attention to detail.
Thus, they probably won’t get a better opportunity to put themselves to the ultimate test than when they face the Chiefs.
Buffalo still needs to build up its confidence in case the two sides meet again in the playoffs.
If you look at the Eastern Conference standings, the Chiefs have the fifth-highest point differential (+58), yet they’re the only undefeated team.
In comparison, the Bills boast a +97-point differential—39 points higher than Kansas City’s.
The Chiefs also have the highest luck factor (+3.0) per TeamRankings, and at some point, one has to wonder if such a level is sustainable.
Chiefs vs. Bills pick
I must admit that I’m completely torn about which direction to take in this game because the last thing you want to do is to try and fade Mahomes as an underdog.
According to the Action Network, the Chiefs quarterback is 7-1-1 against the spread during the regular season in this spot and 12-1-1 if you include the postseason.
Thus, while I lean toward the Bills in this game, I still can’t fully commit to the home team.
However, one way to back the Bills with laying the points is to take Allen to go over his rushing attempts prop of 7.5.
Betting on the NFL?
While Allen has become much more of a pocket passer, he’s not afraid to put his body on the line in these high-leverage games.
It’s worth noting that he’s gone over 7.5 rushing attempts in each of his four regular-season games against the Chiefs.
The games mean more when the opponent is Kansas City, and I expect Allen to try and pull out all the stops in pursuit of a victory.
Best bet: Josh Allen over 7.5 rushing attempts (-105, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
