NFL Black Friday picks, best bets

If we’ve learned anything about the Kansas City Chiefs, it’s that they can not be trusted as big favorites.

That’s exactly what they are when they walk into Arrowhead Stadium on Black Friday, where the Chiefs will be 13-point favorites.

Kansas City was the last NFL team to be undefeated this season and now have a divisional matchup in primetime.

The Chiefs have been favored by six or more points six times this season and have won all of them, but they are 0-5-1 against the spread in those games.

Las Vegas is 2-2 against the spread in their last four against the Chiefs and won their Christmas Day matchup last season as 11-point underdogs.

Could we really expect more of that on a holiday primetime affair?

Chiefs vs. Raiders odds

Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction

Make no mistake: the Raiders are a significantly less talented squad than nearly every team in the league.

Although a division matchup could make this one interesting, considering the Chiefs sleep-walked their way to a near loss to Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers.

Still, the Panthers are rated No. 30 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), while the Raiders are 29th.

Last week, the Chiefs were 11-point favorites on the road and now host the Raiders at 13-point favorites.

My betting model has the projected score of this matchup at 16.8 points for the Raiders and 23.4 points for the Chiefs.

Even with Isiah Pacheco expected to play on Friday, it’s way too many points for a Chiefs team that doesn’t take many games seriously that aren’t in January.

Betting on College Football?

Bet the Raiders first half against the spread (+7), as their average first-half point differential is -4.1, and Las Vegas has seen increases in first-half points in recent weeks.

They’re averaging 9.7 points per first half in their last three games, up from their average total of 8.1.

PICK: Las Vegas Raiders first half spread +7 (-120, Fanatics)