‘Thursday Night Football’ picks, best bets
The AFC West has another prime-time battle on “Thursday Night Football” as the Denver Broncos come into Los Angeles to face the Chargers.
Justin Herbert has been banged up for a few weeks now but has no injury designation for this game, while Denver is coming off a win over the Colts that was fueled by a defensive touchdown.
The Broncos have actually scored three defensive touchdowns in their last two weeks and a bit of regression should be coming on that front, as Herbert has only thrown two interceptions all season.
This game should be highly entertaining as it features the Broncos’ fourth-rated defense in terms of Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
The Chargers feature the ninth-rated defense, according to DVOA.
Broncos vs. Chargers odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | +2.5 (-105) | +120 | Over 41.5 (-110) |
| Chargers | -2.5 (-115) | -145 | Under 41.5 (-110) |
Broncos vs. Chargers prediction
Denver nearly lost to the Jameis Winston Browns at home in Week 13 and was playing 50/50 ball against the Colts last week before pulling away in the fourth quarter.
The real matchup here is the chess match on the sidelines: Sean Payton vs. Jim Harbaugh.
These two teams are probably the best-coached squads in the league.
Denver’s offense has been surprisingly excellent this season, ranking in the top 10 in points per game.
Betting on the NFL?
Still, the Broncos’ underlying stats suggest it’s based more on good turnover variance than anything else.
The Broncos are No. 24 in the league in yards per play (5.1) and facing a strong defense with an impressive pass rush that could challenge one of the league’s best offensive lines.
For bets, we’re looking at targeting the under 41.5 in an expected chess match with a banged-up quarterback on a short week.
PICK: Under 41.5 (-110, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
