Dow soars as investors welcome surprising inflation data
Stocks rallied to close out the trading week on Friday after two lackluster sessions as a cooler-than-expected inflation report and comments from Federal Reserve officials eased worries about the path of interest rates.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 498 points, or 1.2%, to 42,840.26. The blue-chip index had jumped more than 800 points earlier Friday.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both climbed 1%. All three indexes finished with weekly losses.
The Nasdaq snapped a four-week streak of gains, and the Dow dropped for a third consecutive week. Along with the S&P 500, all three were down about 2% for the week.
The latest inflation report in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index showed a 2.4% rise in November on an annual basis, just below the 2.5% estimate of economists polled by Reuters.
Consumer spending increased in November in another sign of economic resilience.
After the data, traders raised their slightly increased expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025, now expecting the first one in March and another by October. Before the data, traders saw a roughly 50% chance of a second rate cut by December 2025.
On Wednesday, the Fed announced its third interest-rate cut of the year but forecast in its summary of economic projections (SEP) just two 25-basis point cuts for 2025, down from its September view of four cuts, in a nod to the economy’s continued health and sticky inflation.
The announcement sparked a sharp sell-off late on Wednesday, which equities were unable to bounce back from on Thursday. Even with Friday’s rally, each of the three major US indexes were on track for a weekly decline.
Also providing support were comments from Fed officials, with some acknowledging they were starting to factor in fiscal policy uncertainty, such as tariffs, in their outlooks.
“It’s kind of obvious what’s going on – it’s just this PCE plus dovish Fed commentary offset the market overreaction to the hawkish cut that everybody was expecting,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors in New York.
“We’ve seen this like 10 times during this Fed cycle. The market just always overreacts on one side or the other.”
Each of the 11 major S&P sectors advanced in the broad-based rally, led by a gain in real estate and buoyed by a drop in Treasury yields.
Small cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000, which are also seen as likely to benefit from lower interest rates, rallied 0.9%.
Friday’s session also marks the simultaneous expiry of quarterly derivatives contracts tied to stocks, index options and futures, also known as “triple witching,” which could exacerbate volatility.
Markets were also monitoring Congress as it scrambled to avert a partial government shutdown before a midnight deadline, after more than three dozen Republicans rejected a demand by President-elect Donald Trump to use the measure to lift the nation’s debt ceiling.
