Mets’ starting pitching plan looks very familiar so far without true ace
If Sean Manaea represents the final major piece of the Mets rotation, the club’s 2025 rotation would bear similarities to the 2024 rotation: plenty of depth, potential and experience, but probably without a true, established ace.
For the Mets, who watched that roster construction turn out pretty well last season, that would be OK.
“Having a horse at the front of your rotation always helps,” president of baseball operations David Stearns said earlier this offseason. “I think Sean served that [role] this year. He had a heck of a year. There were points this year where [Luis Severino] did that for us. You need starting pitchers to pitch well.
“I don’t know that I’m going to go into, ‘It has to be the name-brand ace,’ but you certainly need starting pitchers who can carry the load for you.”
The Mets were granted an in-person meeting with Roki Sasaki — a step that not every team has received — and can dream about filling out their rotation with arguably the best arm available this offseason for what would be inarguably the most team-friendly deal.
But if the Japanese ace chooses the favored Dodgers, Padres or somewhere that is not Queens, the Mets still might have enough capable starting pitchers to carry the load.
After agreeing late Sunday with Manaea to a three-year, $75 million contract that includes deferred money, Stearns has assembled five definite pieces of what will be a six-man rotation: Manaea, Kodai Senga, Frankie Montas, David Peterson and Clay Holmes.
Barring another addition (without another high-end arm expected), Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill, Jose Butto and Paul Blackburn (when healthy) would have the inside track toward the final spot.
Max Kranick and Justin Hagenman could step up as swingmen. Prospects Brandon Sproat, Blade Tidwell, Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong might pitch their way into the conversation later in the season.
There are worlds in which Senga — an ace in 2023 who was hurt the majority of ’24 — emerges as a No. 1 again.
The Mets like the upside of Montas, who was sixth in AL Cy Young voting in 2021.
There is curiosity about Holmes, who was often dominant as a Yankees reliever and who the club hopes has a deep enough arsenal to transition well.
Peterson, 29, is coming off a breakout season in which he finished with a 2.90 ERA in 21 starts.
But the Mets’ best bet for a 2025 ace is the one who grew into their 2024 ace.
Manaea, a clubhouse and fan favorite, is back on a pact that the Mets did not have to stretch to four seasons.
The lefty will be 34 in February and is coming off the best stretch of his career, dropping his arm slot to near sidearm and asserting himself as the Mets’ best pitcher (and one of the best in baseball) from the end of July to the end of the season.
He was strong for three postseason outings before running out of gas in his last start against the Dodgers.
“I’ve loved my time here,” an emotional Manaea said after the season ended in the NLCS. “I love New York, the organization and all the people here, so I’d definitely love to be back.”
Manaea got his wish, if not the lengthier deal some expected. Through nine big league seasons, he has been a slightly above-average starter with a 4.00 ERA, but he is trending upward — and seems to always discover ways to improve.
He lost his rotation spot as a Giants starter in 2023, and picked up a sweeper midseason that he used to find his way back into the rotation and pitch well.
He leveraged that spurt into a deal with the Mets and, after dropping down and imitating Chris Sale, he helped carry the Mets to two wins shy of the World Series and the largest contract of his career.
It was enough for Stearns to bring back Manaea on the largest deal the Mets boss has handed out to a starting pitcher.
It is unlikely Stearns would top that mark with, say, Corbin Burnes.
These are no longer the Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander Mets. It is looking as if they again will trust a deep supply of arms rather than a brand-name ace.
