Trump sees swing-state momentum in latest polls

A trio of swing-state polls, along with a fresh survey of seven battlegrounds, shows Donald Trump is closing strong in the places the election will be decided.

New Marist College polls of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina released Thursday find the Republican nominee tied or ahead in all three, the latest indication Vice President Kamala Harris can’t finish the sale.

In the Grand Canyon State, Trump is up by 1 point in the battle for 11 electoral votes, 50% to 49%, among 1,193 likely voters polled between Oct. 17 and 22.

And Latino voters, as has been the case in other polls of the border battleground, like Trump more than the overall body politic. He’s up 53% to 46%, which shows a stunning realignment among the growth demographic in politics. For perspective, Trump was down by 24 points with Hispanics in the last election.

Trump has majority support with Gen X voters, carrying 52% of the former flannel-and-grunge set, and 54% support among Arizona men.

Unhappily for GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake, polling suggests a split-ticket scenario for an important subset of voters, as she trails Rep. Ruben Gallego 53% to 45%. Compounding Lake’s woes: Only 72% of her voters are committed to their choice, compared with 82% of Gallego backers.

North Carolina also offers a narrow lead for Trump, this one in a race for 16 electoral votes, though another contest without down-ballot coattails for a damaged-goods candidate.

The former president leads Harris 50% to 48% among 1,226 likely voters polled, with strong performances among black and female voters helping him to the narrow lead. 

Though his 19% puts him 61 points behind Harris with African Americans, he lost the same demographic to Biden in 2020 by 85 points.

And he’s actually ahead 50% to 49% with women.

Trump leads comfortably with white voters, 58% to 40%, and holds a 52% to 46% lead with men overall, suggesting the gender gap in the Tar Heel State isn’t as profound as it might be in other places.

Unfortunately for Republicans in the state, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson isn’t headed for the governor’s mansion. He’s down 14 points to Attorney General Josh Stein, 55% to 41%, raising questions for Marist about whether Robinson will “dampen turnout” and allow Harris to give Trump his first loss in North Carolina.

Turning to Georgia, the race is a statistical tie among 1,193 likely voters, with Harris and Trump knotted at 49% and roughly nine in 10 likely voters backing either candidate saying they’re locked in.

Key to Trump’s performance in the Peach State: the predilections of white voters, who reject Harris here in yet another poll, giving her just 32% support, putting her 35 points behind Trump. 

The former president has 15% support among black voters, 67 points behind the vice president.

Trump’s ability to pick up 16 critical electoral votes will hinge on turning out people who have yet to vote.  Electoral early birds back Harris 55% to 45%, while procrastinators support Trump, 52% to 46%.

The Marist polls are the latest to show the ex-prez in good shape as the campaign hits the final days.

It’s also worth noting a seven-state Forbes battleground survey rolled out Wednesday finds Trump leading the veep 54% to 46%, though the sample was just 322 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.