Gaza Cease-Fire Deal Brings Joy, but Is Shadowed With Uncertainty

After 15 months of bombardment and suffering, the prospect of a cease-fire and a hostage release deal in Gaza provides Palestinians and Israelis with a glimmer of jubilation, but it’s a view tinged with uncertainty.

For Palestinians, the agreement, if it is finalized, is likely to offer at least several weeks of respite from a devastating Israeli military campaign that has killed more than 45,000 people in Gaza, both civilians and combatants.

For Israelis, it could allow for the release of at least one-third of the remaining hostages held by Hamas and its allies. The captives were taken when Hamas raided Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, the first of 466 days of war.

But the ambiguity of the deal, drafts of which were reviewed by The New York Times, also means lingering unease and the possibility of renewed conflict within weeks. To persuade both sides to sign on, mediators forged an arrangement that is worded so loosely that some of its components remain unresolved, meaning that it could easily collapse.

In the first six weeks of the deal, Hamas is expected to release 33 hostages in exchange for several hundred Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Israel is also meant to gradually withdraw its troops eastward, allowing for hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians to return home.

For the deal to last longer than six weeks, Israel and Hamas still need to resolve certain issues, including the terms by which Hamas will release the approximately 65 other hostages, some of whom are believed to be dead, in its custody. To prolong the truce, both sides would also need to agree to end the war entirely, while Israel would need to withdraw from strategic areas of Gaza — moves that are opposed by key members of Israel’s ruling coalition.

Should those talks break down, the war could continue after a 42-day truce, if not earlier.

That means the coming weeks will remain fraught for the families of the Israeli hostages who will likely not be released in the deal’s first phase. Gazans will live with the possibility that Israel’s strikes could continue.

This precarity also presents potential peril for both Hamas and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister.

If war resumes, a severely weakened Hamas might finally lose its grip on Gaza. But if the deal becomes permanent, Hamas would have a greater chance of retaining power in the territory — a symbolic victory for a group that at one point seemed close to ceding its 17-year rule.

An outcome that leaves Hamas in control could prove damaging to Mr. Netanyahu, whose far-right coalition partners have threatened to leave his coalition if Hamas survives, a departure that would destabilize and potentially collapse his government.

For months, Mr. Netanyahu has avoided an arrangement that would risk such a threat to his power. The ambiguity of the deal is partly the result of his need to present it as only a temporary arrangement.

The coming weeks could help clarify whether the prime minister feels politically strong enough to face down his coalition partners. Even if he does, other shoals await: The end of the war will likely lead to a national inquiry about Israel’s security failures on Oct. 7, 2023, possibly uncovering revelations that could damage Mr. Netanyahu as well as his security chiefs.

Despite these uncertainties, analysts say, the deal still stands a reasonable chance of becoming permanent. The loose language of the agreement would allow the cease-fire to drag on as long as the two sides remain locked in negotiations, even if those negotiations take longer than six weeks to reach further agreement.

And both sides have reasons to keep extending the negotiations, however fruitless the talks.

Hamas, isolated and weakened, wants to remain dominant in Gaza, and a cease-fire allows it time to recuperate.

Mr. Netanyahu has long hoped to forge landmark diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia. Negotiations for such a deal, which were derailed by the outbreak of war in 2023, would likely only resume if the truce holds.

A Saudi-Israel deal “can’t happen with an ongoing war in Gaza, with large numbers of Palestinian casualties, Hamas holding Israeli hostages and a worsening humanitarian catastrophe,” said Aaron David Miller, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based research group.

Similarly, a large protest movement in Israel is pushing Mr. Netanyahu to extend the deal in order to release every hostage; such public pressure could ultimately drown out any backlash he faces for ending the war. The euphoria and celebration that is expected to accompany each hostage release may also accelerate momentum and public support in Israel for a permanent arrangement that leads to freedom for every captive.

The role of the Trump administration will also be crucial. Mr. Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, played a key role in recent days in pushing Israel toward a deal, officials say, and the administration’s continued interest may decide how long the deal lasts.

“Trump is going to be the critical variable when it comes to the Israeli side,” said Michael Koplow, an analyst at Israel Policy Forum, a New York-based research group.

“If Trump is happy with having orchestrated the first phase and then moves on to other issues, it will be harder to keep the cease-fire in place,” Mr. Koplow said.

If Mr. Trump retains his focus, “it will be tougher for Netanyahu not to find ways to extend the cease-fire deal and figure out other ways to appease his disgruntled coalition members,” Mr. Koplow added.

Johnatan Reiss contributed reporting from Tel Aviv.