Why markets are optimistic as Trump returns to the White House
Investors prepared to welcome Donald Trump’s second inauguration, anticipating benefits from his pro-business agenda, while remaining wary of his protectionist trade policies, particularly his stance on tariffs.
Trump enters office with an ambitious agenda spanning trade reform, immigration crackdowns, tax cuts and loosening cryptocurrency regulation.
Investment managers are adjusting portfolios across asset classes, watching his inaugural address for signals that could trigger near-term market moves.
“Uncertainty remains the watchword, with everyone alert for answers to questions like whether the threat of tariffs will become a reality or remain a negotiating ploy on day one,” said Sam Stovall, chief market strategist at CFRA Research.
But many hold out hope for a relatively muted response to the new president’s initial comments and actions.
“The Trump bark might be worse than the Trump bite in the early going,” said Michael Arone, chief investment officer at State Street Global Advisors.
He expects the timing and impact of Trump’s most significant policy changes to play out over a longer time period.
Still, there is the potential that Trump’s tariff plans could further fan inflation fears that pressure bond and stock prices, while efforts to tighten immigration controls could also reverberate through those markets. Moves to ease regulation have lifted bank stocks and sent cryptocurrencies soaring.
As they reported surging profits, Wall Street CEOs told investors that the incoming US administration would be business-friendly and good for banks.
“Investors have been enthusiastic about the potential loosening of regulations and possible reduction in corporate and business income taxes,” said Stovall.
The S&P 500’s post-election rally has cooled to a 2.7% gain, following a selloff in early January on inflation fears.
Trump plans to kick-start his presidency with a wave of executive orders targeting key policy areas, including immigration and energy.
The cryptocurrency industry expects Trump to fulfill his “crypto president” campaign promises by creating a federal bitcoin stockpile, expanding bank access and creating a crypto council, Reuters previously reported.
During the first year of Trump’s first administration, the S&P 500 rose 19.4%, following a 5% rally in his first 100 days in the Oval Office.
During the entirety of Trump’s first term, the S&P 500 rose nearly 68%, but markets saw bouts of volatility, stemming in part from a trade war Trump fought with China.
Following Trump’s last inaugural address in January 2017, the S&P 500 ended up 0.3% on the day.
The US stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, so much of the trading reaction may not be evident until Tuesday.
