NBA player props, picks, best bets
The Brooklyn Nets are technically alive in the playoff race, given the play-in tournament, but the signs are clear that this franchise is focused on the NBA draft lottery.
This is a prime example of how understanding a specific team can provide valuable betting opportunities, while oddsmakers are stretched thin keeping up with numerous sports and the expanding menus of prop bets. Knowledge is power, as Thomas Jefferson once coined.
The recently acquired D’Angelo Russell has entrenched himself into the starting point guard spot. However, head coach Jordi Fernandez has established that Russell’s playing time appears as though it will maintain a cap of 26 minutes.
Additionally, with Cam Thomas still injured, Russell often ends the game with Brooklyn’s most or second most shot attempts. Thus, he’s capable of dropping 20 points on any given night, but he’s finished around the 10-point mark in some games. That makes his points prop of 13.5 tough to handicap.
However, I think there is strong value on his assists prop, and that’s why I am playing Under 5.5 with -150 odds. In this sports section, I have a 26-14 record against the spread (ATS).
First off, if Russell is hoisting around 15 shot attempts in addition to a few free throws, then he is not passing much. And when he does find an open teammate, the Nets don’t have many reliable shooters or scorers. That’s why he is averaging 3.2 assists over his past six games, while cashing the under in all six.
Conventional wisdom suggests he will have the ball more in his hands with the recent buyout of Ben Simmons, but Russell’s assists numbers did not increase when Simmons missed games. Russell has the capabilities to be a playmaker but he is prioritizing shots and the team is limiting his time on the court.
Betting on the NBA?
PICK: D’Angelo Russell under 5.5 assists (-150, BetMGM)
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Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
