Control of House still in limbo as Republicans hope for a political trifecta

With Republican control of the White House and Senate secure, all eyes are on dozens of outstanding congressional races that will determine control of the House of Representatives.

As of 5 p.m. Wednesday, the GOP was projected to win at least 202 House seats, according to the Associated Press, with Democrats projected to win at least 189.

The forecasting website Decision Desk HQ gave Republicans a 92.4% chance of winning the majority and projected that the GOP would win 222 seats — starting the 119th Congress off with a narrow cushion of four.

Republicans were projected to flip at least six seats — three in North Carolina, two in Pennsylvania and one in Michigan.

Democrats were projected to pick up Alabama’s new majority-black 2nd Congressional District, along with New York’s upstate 22nd Congressional District, where state Sen. John Mannion defeated freshman GOP Rep. Brandon Williams.

On Long Island, Democrat Laura Gillen claimed victory in New York’s 4th Congressional District, but her Republican opponent, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, had yet to concede the race and no winner had been projected.

Heading into Election Day, control of the House was widely seen as a toss-up and it was believed that it could take days until the victor becomes clear.

Predictably, the bulk of uncalled races are in California, which historically takes its time to tabulate the results thanks to its large population and lax mail-in and early vote policies.

Republicans held 12 of California’s 52 House seats entering Election Night and were leading or projected to win 13 Golden State seats this time around.

“House Republicans have been successful in securing critical flips in swing states including Pennsylvania and Michigan, while our battle-tested incumbents have secured re-election from coast to coast,” House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in a statement.

“The latest data and trends indicate that when all the votes are tabulated, Republicans will have held our majority, even though we faced a map with 18 Biden-won seats.”

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) crowed about Democrats’ performance in his home state, where the party reversed GOP gains from two years earlier.

“Update from the Battleground in the Empire State. Democrats have now flipped four Republican-held House seats in New York this year,” Jeffries wrote on X.

Four years ago, New York voters almost single-handily gave control of the House back to Republicans, after they managed to win 11 of the 26 House seats. Powering that, in part, was upheaval over the state’s redistricting after a court threw out the Democrats’ map.

Since then Democrats have resketched the map in a way that made the landscape slightly more favorable for them in the 2024 cycle.

The pickups in New York came despite former President Donald Trump running the strongest race for a Republican presidential contender in the Empire State since 1988. Trump’s margin of defeat in New York was slimmer than his margin of victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in Florida.

The lackluster showing for Democrats nationally has already triggered finger-pointing between hardcore progressives and moderates.