Mandel’s Final Thoughts: Playoff bracket, bubble and Big 12 race have new main characters

And now, 20 Final Thoughts from college football’s Week 12, where no one won bigger than Indiana’s Curt Cignetti. He got a $64 million contract on his week off.

1. Preseason No. 1 Georgia faced the prospect of missing the College Football Playoff entirely if it suffered its third loss of the season on Saturday against Tennessee. And it looked like that was going to happen when the Bulldogs fell behind 10-0 on their home field. But then, much-maligned quarterback Carson Beck rediscovered his mojo just in time.

Behind Beck’s best game of the season (25 of 40 for 347 yards and two touchdowns, no interceptions) and a masterful performance by his offensive line, No. 12 Georgia (8-2, 6-2 SEC) beat No. 7 Tennessee (8-2, 5-2) for the eighth straight season, 31-17. In doing so, Georgia both saved its season and turned the SEC standings into a marvelous, muddy mess.

2. Texas and Texas A&M are both 5-1 and tied for first in the league. They play each other on Nov. 30 in College Station. So that part should resolve itself. After that, there are four teams — Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss — with two conference losses. Kalen DeBoer’s Tide, left for dead a few weeks ago, have the inside track to Atlanta due to their opponents’ cumulative conference record.

But, of course, all of these teams are still vying for CFP at-large berths, which brings us back to the Vols.

3. We hereby anoint Tennessee as the first official bubble team of the 12-team era. Our best guess is the Vols, No. 7 in last week’s committee rankings, will fall to the “first one out” slot that Georgia had occupied. Tennessee has a win against Alabama, but it suffered a meh loss at Arkansas, which is 5-5. Ole Miss has a flat-out bad loss at home against 4-6 Kentucky, but it has been dominant in most of its wins, including two against ranked opponents Georgia and No. 21 South Carolina.

Both should cheer for Ohio State to hammer No. 5 Indiana next week. The currently undefeated Hoosiers would have one fewer loss but also zero Top 25 wins. You can already hear the lobbying now between the Big Ten and SEC commissioners about that last at-large berth.

4. No. 1 Oregon (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) has not had a week off since Sept. 21, and on Saturday, the Ducks made their third trip to the Eastern or Central time zone in their past five games. So I found it unsurprising that Oregon sputtered on offense for much of the night against Wisconsin at sold-out Camp Randall Stadium and trailed 13-6 when “Jump Around” came on at the start of the fourth quarter. We’ve seen far bigger underdogs than the Badgers (+13.5) pull off upsets this season.

But the Ducks did what great teams do, driving 81 yards for the tying score and holding Wisconsin without a first down for the entire fourth quarter to win 16-13. Running back Jordan James (25 carries, 121 yards, one TD) wore down the Badgers (5-5, 3-4), and defensive end Matayo Uiagalelei was everywhere, pulling down a game-sealing interception off a deflection. In escaping Madison unscathed, Oregon, which has only one game remaining, against 6-5 Washington, may have helped its conference stave off a possible four-way tie for first.

5. The Big 12 race took quite a turn Saturday. Sixth-ranked BYU (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) had been living dangerously for some time, and its luck ran out in a 17-13 home loss to Kansas (4-6, 3-4) — specifically when Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels’ pooch punt bounced off BYU player Evan Johnson and into the hands of Kansas’ Quentin Skinner. That set up the go-ahead score early in the fourth quarter, and the Cougars never got on the board again. It was a huge win for Lance Leipold’s Jayhawks, who started the season 1-5 but have won three of four, including back-to-back Top 25 wins (Iowa State and BYU).

BYU still has a Playoff bid within reach, as it is tied for first in the Big 12 with Colorado (8-2, 6-1) and will head to Arlington if it wins out. But first, the Cougars have to make it past one of the country’s hottest teams next week.

6. What a job Kenny Dillingham has done in his second season at Arizona State. The Sun Devils (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) went to No. 16 Kansas State (7-3, 4-3), jumped out to a 24-0 lead and held on to win 24-14, moving into third place in the 16-team conference. Redshirt freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt (21 of 34 for 275 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions) and third-year receiver Jordyn Tyson (12 catches, 176 yards, two TDs) had big days, while the Sun Devils defense forced three turnovers and made a fourth-and-1 stop.

Arizona State hosts BYU next week with a chance to take control of its Big 12 title hopes. It’s hard to believe this is the same program that was still digging out from under Herm Edwards’ mismanagement and NCAA recruiting sanctions this time last year.

7. Early in the season, it was hard to imagine Colorado star Travis Hunter winning the Heisman Trophy as a non-quarterback on a likely non-CFP team. But here we are, with the 17th-ranked Buffs on a four-game winning streak, and it feels like Hunter may run away with the thing.

In Saturday’s 49-24 win over Utah (4-6, 1-6), the two-way star did something no NFL or FBS player had achieved in almost exactly 24 years: post 50 receiving yards (five catches for 55), score a rushing touchdown (on a reverse where he eluded seven Utes tacklers) and intercept a pass (which he returned for 21 yards, then struck the Heisman pose). The last player to pull off that trifecta: Champ Bailey on Dec. 24, 2000 — in the NFL.

TRAVIS HUNTER IS JUST A CHEAT CODE 😱@CUBuffsFootball pic.twitter.com/SUCHVonSOq

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 16, 2024

8. But, of course, no Heisman voter should make up his or her mind until the final games are played. No. 13 Boise State (9-1, 6-0 Mountain West) fell behind 14-0 early at San Jose State (6-4, 3-3) but eventually went up 28-21 on a 36-yard Ashton Jeanty touchdown run, one of his three on the night. Boise Satte pulled away for a 42-21 win behind Jeanty’s 32 carries for 159 yards and three scores. He has gained at least 125 yards in all 10 games and is at 1,893 yards and 26 touchdowns on the season.

With the win, Boise State clinched a berth in the Dec. 6 Mountain West Championship Game, where it will face either Colorado State (7-3, 5-0) or UNLV (8-2, 4-1). And with BYU losing, the once far-fetched scenario in which the Broncos finish ahead of the Big 12 champ and get a first-round bye is now on the table.

As for the Heisman, Jeanty’s biggest hurdle isn’t his opponents. It’s that his team was playing San Jose State on CBS Sports Network, not Utah on Fox’s “Big Noon Saturday.”

9. Quinn Ewers may have the Dr. Pepper commercials and Arch Manning the “great hair and famous relatives,” but Texas is two wins from the SEC Championship Game because of Jahdae Barron and the nation’s top-ranked defense. The No. 3 Longhorns (9-1, 5-1 SEC) notched six sacks and allowed just 231 total yards in a 20-10 win at Arkansas (5-5, 3-4). Texas’ offense has been inconsistent during the back half of the season, but when the Razorbacks cut their deficit to 13-10 early in the fourth quarter, Ewers (20 of 32, 176 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions) hit Isaiah Bond on a 20-yard pass to begin a 75-yard touchdown drive.

The Longhorns get Kentucky (4-6, 1-6) at home next week before a little game in College Station.

10. South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers has been outstanding the past several weeks. After Missouri took the lead on a 37-yard Luther Burden III touchdown catch with 1:15 left, Sellers led his team right back down the field, culminating in a 15-yard catch-and-run score by Rocket Sanders. The No. 21 Gamecocks (7-3, 5-3 SEC) prevailed 34-30 over No. 23 Mizzou (7-3, 3-3) for their fourth straight win. Shane Beamer’s team is known for its top-10 defense, but the offense has kicked into gear since a 44-20 win over Texas A&M two weeks ago. It’s too late for the conference race, but South Carolina still has a chance at its first nine-win regular season since 2013.

11. Amid the season-long fixation on Billy Napier’s job security, folks may have missed that Florida has gotten better. The breakthrough finally arrived Saturday when the Gators (5-5, 3-4 SEC) knocked off No. 22 LSU 27-16. Florida welcomed back from injury freshman quarterback DJ Lagway, who threw a 23-yard touchdown, but the story was its defense, which sacked Garrett Nussmeier seven times and held Brian Kelly’s Tigers (6-4, 3-3) to 4.2 yards per play. Napier, who athletic director Scott Stricklin already said will be back next season, may go from hot seat to bowl trip, as Florida still faces 1-9 rival Florida State in its regular-season finale.

Meanwhile, LSU has lost four games in a season for the fourth time in five years. Joe Burrow isn’t walking through that door.

12. Virginia muffed the opening kickoff against No. 8 Notre Dame, and it only went south from there, as the Irish (9-1) feasted on five turnovers to cruise to a 35-14 win over the visiting Cavaliers (5-5, 3-3 ACC). It feels like America’s ultimate helmet school has been flying under the radar for two months, but it’s hard to argue with the results. Notre Dame has won eight in a row, with seven of those coming by at least three scores.

And a lot of people will be watching the Irish during the next two weeks. They meet undefeated Army in prime time next Saturday, and a win would set up their own CFP play-in game against 5-5 USC.

13. Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik saved the Tigers’ season Saturday. Three plays after the No. 20 Tigers (8-2, 7-1 ACC) fell behind Pittsburgh (7-3, 3-3) with 1:36 left, Klubnik broke a 50-yard touchdown run to put Clemson back up 24-20. The Tigers’ defense, which had eight sacks, closed out the win from there. Dabo Swinney’s team finished ACC play at 7-1 and still has a shot at the conference title game if No. 9 Miami (9-1, 5-1) loses one of its last two games or, less likely, SMU (9-1, 6-0) falls twice. (Clemson would be the odd team out in a three-way tiebreaker.)

No one would confuse this Clemson team with the Deshaun Watson/Trevor Lawrence teams that reached six consecutive CFPs from 2015 to 2020, but these Tigers could still earn an automatic berth and a top-four seed.

14. If you missed it, Boston College coach Bill O’Brien’s decision during week to pivot from two-year starting quarterback Thomas Castellanos to Grayson James against No. 14 SMU prompted Castellanos to leave the team entirely. James kept the Eagles (5-5, 2-4 ACC) in the game throughout but could not keep up with Kevin Jennings, Brashard Smith and the Mustangs, who kept their perfect ACC record intact with a 38-28 win. And it sure seems like SMU is going to have to get that automatic berth to make the CFP. The committee last week had the Mustangs ranked the lowest of any one-loss Power 4 team, behind three two-loss teams. It would be interesting to see where they’d be if they wore Clemson or Florida State helmets. Or Miami’s, given the Hurricanes are five spots above SMU.

15. While Boise State has hogged the Group of 5 spotlight most of the season, No. 25 Tulane is playing as well as anyone in those conferences. The Green Wave (9-2, 7-0 AAC) clinched a berth in their third straight AAC Championship Game with a 35-0 rout of Navy (7-3, 5-2), the sixth double-digit win of Tulane’s seven-game winning streak. Tulane will meet No. 24 Army (9-0, 7-0), which clinched its berth on an off week thanks to Navy losing, on Dec. 6 at one or the other’s stadium.

Tulane coach Jon Sumrall knows what he’s doing; this will be his third straight conference title game after winning back-to-back Sun Belt titles at Troy.

16. USC coach Lincoln Riley changed quarterbacks during the week and finally won a close game. UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava (23 of 35 for 259 yards, three touchdowns, one interception) was decent, and running back Woody Marks (19 carries for 146 yards) ran hard for the Trojans (5-5, 3-5 Big Ten) in their 28-20 win over Nebraska (5-5, 2-5). The Huskers, still trying to reach their first bowl game since 2016, have lost four straight and have dropped their last nine games — dating to 2019 — when a win would have made them bowl-eligible. It’s preposterous! They have two chances left this season, against Wisconsin (5-5, 3-4) and at Iowa (6-4, 4-3).

17. Nearly all the coaches who entered the season on the hot seat have worked their way off of it. Baylor (6-4, 4-3 Big 12) got bowl-eligible with a 49-35 win at West Virginia (5-5, 4-3), after which the school let reporters know that coach Dave Aranda will be back for a fifth season. The Bears have bounced back from last year’s 3-9 debacle thanks to several young standouts, most notably freshman running back Bryson Washington, who had 18 carries for 123 yards and three touchdowns and caught five passes for 59 yards and another TD against the Mountaineers.

18. One coach who might be in actual danger? Purdue’s Ryan Walters. While it’s only his second season, the Boilermakers (1-9, 0-7 Big Ten) are just awful. Their 49-10 home loss to No. 4 Penn State (9-1, 6-1) marked their fifth defeat of at least 35 points, with such memorable scores as 66-7 (Notre Dame), 52-6 (Wisconsin) and 45-0 (Ohio State). Somehow Purdue drew all four of the Big Ten’s current top-10 teams, plus a top-10 Notre Dame team. But it even lost by 17 to an Oregon State team that is 4-6. And No. 5 Indiana still awaits.

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19. Stanford has not had many highlights in coach Troy Taylor’s two seasons, but on Saturday, the Cardinal (3-7, 2-5 ACC) knocked off No. 19 Louisville (6-4, 4-3) 38-35 in miraculous fashion. Louisville, facing a fourth-and-10 with 10 seconds left and the score tied, opted to try a Hail Mary. Nope. Stanford took over possession at its own 44 with four seconds left, at which point Louisville got flagged 15 yards for an unsportsmanlike penalty, then jumped offside, setting up Emmet Kenney to hit a game-winning 52-yard field goal.

That could not have been a fun flight home for Louisville.

20. Finally, when a Saturday begins, you never know where the feel-good story of the day might occur. This week, it was Albuquerque, N.M. The hometown Lobos (5-6), trying to avoid an eighth straight losing season, drove 75 yards entirely on the ground to score a go-ahead touchdown with 21 seconds left and knock off No. 18 Washington State (8-2) 38-35. It was a huge win for former BYU and Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who took over at New Mexico this season. His team can get bowl-eligible with a win at 4-7 Hawaii in two weeks.

It was New Mexico’s first Top 25 win since 2003 when the Lobos knocked off a Utah team coached by one Urban Meyer.

(Photo: Peter Aiken / Getty Images)