Eruption ‘imminent’ for mile-wide hidden volcano near US coast

Will the coast be toast?

An increase in seismic activity has prompted predictions that a mile-wide submarine volcano named the Axial Seamount will erupt near the United States West Coast by year’s end.

“The eruptions are pretty big,” Bill Chadwick, a volcanologist at Oregon State University who studies the fire-spouting formation, told KOIN.

Located 300 miles off Oregon’s Coast, the Axial Seamount is the “most active volcano in the Northeast Pacific, which maybe some people don’t know because it’s hidden under the ocean,” Chadwick said.

“What’s leading us to talk about an eruption in the next year and by the end of 2025 is we’re almost fully reinflated to the level it was before the 2015 eruption,” explained Oregon volcanologist Bill Chadwick while describing the Axial Seamount (pictured). Schmidt Ocean Institute

Indeed, the underwater flamethrower has erupted three times in the past three decades, blowing its stack in 1998, 2011 and 2015, he wrote in a blog post. Meanwhile, a recent study published in Nature identified multiple pools of magma beneath the volcano.

Researchers based their latest forecast on the fact that the 3,600-foot mountain experienced an uptick in seismic activity, similar to the tectonic overtures that preceded its last eruption ten years ago.

“In the last year, especially, there was the number of earthquakes,” said Chadwick, who noted that there were thousands of tremors in the vicinity ahead of the previous event.

The volcano measures a mile wide and 3,600 feet tall. NOAA

This fall, the Axial Seamount also attained the same level of swelling — caused when rising magma pushes the volcano’s surface upward — that it did ahead of the latter lava bomb, according to Science Alert.

The seamount has also swollen to roughly the same size it did before it last erupted in 2015. Yang et al., Nature

“What’s leading us to talk about an eruption in the next year and by the end of 2025 is we’re almost fully reinflated to the level it was before the 2015 eruption,” Chadwick explained. “So, all these signs are pointing toward the final stages of the buildup to the next eruption.”

However, the scientist added that there’s “no certainty” to its behavior and that there’s always the risk that the seamount does “something different that we haven’t seen before.”

That’s why the OSU crew constantly monitors the formation using various cutting-edge instruments, including a submersible that dives down to the seamount and collects images and lava samples for them to study.

But don’t prep for a fiery apocalypse just yet — if and when the volcano does blow its top, it will likely pose little risk to the public.

Due to the shield structure of the submerged peak, the Axial Seamount will simply split at the surface and cause the magma to burble forth, negating the risk of a tsunami or other calamity.

“If you were out there on a ship right over the seamount, you would never know anything was happening,” said Chadwick. “There’s no effect at the surface. You’d have to make a dive with a submersible or remotely operated vehicle or something to see what’s happened.”

Despite the lack of imminent danger, the scientist hopes that they’ll be able to apply the lessons learned here to “more dangerous volcanos around the world.”