NFL ‘Sunday Night Football’ prediction, pick
Week 10 offers some exciting prime-time games, including what should be a fun matchup between the Detroit Lions and Texans on “Sunday Night Football.”
I don’t have an overwhelming stance on the spread or total for this game, but I’ve identified two player prop angles I love for this matchup.
Odds can move drastically leading up to game time, so feel free to hit me up on X at @Wayne_Bets to see if the numbers are still playable.
Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 15.5 yards (-120 Bet365)
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans has led an impressive defensive season, and Houston ranks second in defensive DVOA.
Nevertheless, if there’s one weakness, it’s in allowing explosive runs.
According to Fantasy Points Data, the Texans have allowed the third-highest rate of explosive runs and 2.77 yards after contact per attempt, the most in the NFL.
The Texans also rank 21st in open field yards allowed, which FTN defines as yards that running backs earn more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.
That’s music to the ears of a home-run-hitting running back like Gibbs, who leads all qualified running backs with an absurd 9.7 percent explosive rush rate.
He also ranks fifth in breakaway run rate, according to Pro Football Focus.
He’s an elite talent, and he benefits from running behind the league’s best offensive line by adjusted line yards.
Gibbs has cleared this number in 18 of 26 career games (69 percent) and six of eight games this season (75 percent).
Meanwhile, the Texans have allowed a running back to clear this number in six of their past seven games.
This is a perfect storm for Gibbs to break off a long rush at some point.
C.J. Stroud Over 12.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel)
It looks as if Nico Collins is set to miss another game for the Texans, and with Stefon Diggs out, Stroud’s life is made much more difficult.
Last week, Stroud completed just 11 of 30 passes against the Jets.
It didn’t help that he was under constant duress — according to PFF, he was pressured on 55.6 percent of dropbacks.
The Lions’ pass rush hasn’t been as potent since Aidan Hutchinson’s season-ending injury, but we know defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn isn’t afraid to ratchet up the blitz.
Betting on the NFL?
Detroit ranks sixth in blitz rate this year. Stroud has been pressured at the third-highest rate among quarterbacks this year.
Stroud isn’t necessarily known as a dual-threat quarterback, but he has 17-plus rushing yards in four of his past six games.
This matchup is also conducive to him running — the Lions lead the league in man coverage rate (43.7 percent), which strongly correlates to quarterback rushing yards.
They’ve allowed 29-plus rushing yards to quarterbacks in five of their past seven games.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
