NLCS odds, picks, best bets

Pete Alonso did his part to ensure the Amazin’s wouldn’t go quietly into the night.

The Mets slugger set the mark from the start by crushing a Jack Flaherty slider to center field, giving his team a 3-0 lead in the first inning of Game 5 of the NLCS. Five more runs would follow in the third inning in an eventual 12-6 Mets victory, sending the series back to Los Angeles.

With the Mets still facing elimination, they’ll send arguably their best pitcher, Sean Manaea, to the mound for Game 6 on Sunday night. Manaea won his start in Game 2, while the Dodgers opted to use an opener due to multiple injuries in their starting rotation. 

Given that Los Angeles has yet to name a starter, the Mets could take advantage of a similar matchup in Game 6 at Dodger Stadium. 

NLCS: Mets vs. Dodgers Game 6 odds

Mets outlook

Manaea spent the first eight years of his career on the West Coast, playing for the Athletics, Padres and Giants. Thus, he has plenty of experience going up against this potent Dodgers lineup year after year.

Like so many other teams, the Dodgers put their best hitters at the top of the order, which means opposing pitchers face their biggest test right from the start when they take the mound.

Shohei Ohtani bats leadoff for the Dodgers, followed by Mookie Betts.

Manaea has managed to keep Ohtani at bay, limiting him to two hits in 10 at-bats with four strikeouts and one RBI. His handedness as a southpaw certainly helps to cause problems for the Dodgers’ slugger.

Looking back at some of the swings he took in Game 2, the MVP frontrunner clearly looked unsure of himself.

Manaea will be the third straight left-handed starter Los Angeles will have faced in the NLCS. That could be key as Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is already considering benching Freddie Freeman, one of his best left-handed hitters.

Although Freeman has just one hit in his last 15 at-bats, the former MVP winner is still a threat to wreck a game whenever he steps into the batter’s box.

Dodgers outlook

While we can only speculate who the Dodgers will send to the mound, Ryan Brasier will likely be in the running after opposing Manaea in Game 2. Brasier only pitched one inning but still picked up the loss after allowing a run in the opening frame.

The reality is there’s too much randomness with relievers to place a high degree of confidence in either bullpen.

Despite the Dodgers bullpen having a 3.65 ERA in this series, their FIP is even higher at 4.10. Those signs of regression are similar to what we saw during the regular season when they posted a 3.53 ERA and 4.05 FIP.

The fact that Roberts is considering using an opener and giving Freeman some rest might suggest that he’s already thinking about the long game.

The Dodgers are easily the better team, but can they win a crucial Game 6 short-handed with so many key players battling injuries?

As good as the Dodgers have been this season, backing the favorite at -140 or higher is too steep of a price to pay, given so much uncertainty.

NLCS: Mets vs. Dodgers Game 6 pick

This has been one of the more high-scoring series in recent memory, with each game going over the total. 

Both teams have hit big home runs, and there’s no reason to think the Mets can’t have similar success on Sunday against the Dodgers bullpen.

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While there’s no question that Los Angeles will set out to win the game, Roberts isn’t going to burn his best pitchers if his team falls behind. Thus, if the skipper takes a more cautious approach to managing his pitchers, there are more avenues for the Mets to pull out a victory.

 Given the possibility of such a scenario, the Mets inherently have more value as +124 underdogs.

Best bet: Mets ML (+124, DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.