NASA makes emergency call as odds of ‘city-killing’ asteroid striking Earth increase
Will it help stave off a potential Armageddon?
NASA is training humanity’s most powerful telescope on a “city-killing” asteroid to determine whether or not we need to brace for deep impact.
Dubbed 2024 YR4, the building-sized space rock reportedly has a 1-in-43 chance of slamming into Earth in 2032 — up from about 1%, the Independent reported.
The intergalactic gravel stone was discovered hurtling through our galaxy by NASA in December 2024 and is now reportedly at the top of NASA’s watch list when it comes to hazards from beyond.
An artist’s impression of the James Webb Telescope, which will be used to paint a more accurate picture of the asteroid’s size. NASA / SWNS
With this “time-critical” threat potentially on our doorstep, the space agency has enlisted the aid of the James Webb Space Telescope to study 2024 YR4 and gauge how much damage it would cause if it did strike our planet, per a blog post by the European Space Agency.
“It is very important that we improve our size estimate for 2024 YR4: the hazard represented by a 40 m asteroid is very different from that of a 90 m asteroid,” the ESA wrote.
Astronomers currently estimate that the celestial rolling stone measures roughly 180 feet across — around the height of the Leaning Tower of Pisa, Live Science reported.
“It is very important that we improve our size estimate for 2024 YR4 (pictured),” the ESA wrote. NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope/New Mexico Institute of Technology/Ryan/AFP via Getty Images
Based on these calculations, a strike by YR4 would cause roughly the same amount of damage as the Tunguska impactor, which laid waste to around 80 million trees in Siberia in 1908, according to Space.com.
However, as these estimates are based on terrestrial telescope data, they only see sunlight reflected off the asteroid’s surface, providing them a limited picture of the cosmic body.
In reality, the asteroid could be much larger.
James Webb would help astronomers glean a more accurate measurement of its size by using its infrared instruments to study the heat — rather than brightness — given off by the asteroid.
“In general, the brighter the asteroid, the larger it is, but this relationship strongly depends on how reflective the asteroid’s surface is,” ESA officials explained. “2024 YR4 could be 40 m [130 feet] across and very reflective, or 90 m [295 feet] across and not very reflective.”
Also, because it orbits the sun, the telescope doesn’t have to observe near-Earth bodies through our planet’s obscuring atmosphere like its counterparts on the ground, giving it a much clearer view.
The first round of James Webb observations will transpire in March when the asteroid is at its brightest. It will then set its sights on the YR4 again in May as the space rock rockets away from the sun, which will be its final chance to provide observations until the asteroid’s comeback tour in 2028.
These measurements will in turn be “used by ESA, NASA, and other organizations to more confidently assess the hazard and determine any necessary response,” the ESA wrote.
This data would be crucial because even with the current size estimates, experts predict that a strike by YR4 could explode with the force of 15 megatons of TNT — 100 more times powerful than the atomic bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima in 1945, the Daily Mail reported.
