NBA odds, picks, best bets
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Two NBA title contenders begin their pursuit on Wednesday night as the Philadelphia 76ers host the Milwaukee Bucks in the season opener for both teams.
You might expect both teams to be healthy after an offseason, but load management is now a round-the-clock phenomenon in the NBA as teams devalue the regular season while aiming to be healthy for the playoffs.
Unfortunately, both teams are dealing with injuries ahead of Wednesday night’s marquee matchup.
Thus, we’ll steer clear from the side and total in this game and target a player prop that offers the best value given the injury news.
Bucks vs. 76ers odds
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotalBucks-3.5 (-108)-162o224 (-110)76ers+3.5 (-112)+136u224 (-110)Odds via DraftKings
Bucks outlook
The Bucks didn’t make any big splash moves in the offseason after landing Damian Lillard in a three-way trade the year before.
Instead, they focused on building out the rest of their roster by adding Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright on one-year deals. Rookies AJ Johnson and Tyler Johnson will also help fill out the bench.
The Bucks’ biggest challenge this season will be regaining the defensive edge they had under Mike Budenholzer, who was fired after a shocking first-round playoff exit to the Miami Heat.
Budenholzer led the Bucks to a 58-24 regular-season record and finished fourth in defensive efficiency (110.9 points allowed per 100 possessions).
The following year, the Bucks fired Adrian Griffin, Budenholzer’s replacement, just 43 games into his tenure. Milwaukee won games under Griffin (30-13) but lost its defensive identity, dropping to 22nd in efficiency (116.8).
Doc Rivers came on board midseason, and the defense made some strides, improving to 15th under his watch (113.3), but went just 17-19 while suffering another first-round exit, this time to the Pacers.
Plenty of questions remain for this Bucks team, including whether Rivers is the right man for the job.
76ers outlook
Nick Nurse replaced Rivers as the head coach in Philadelphia following his firing after three straight playoff losses in the second round.
The 76ers looked like legitimate contenders through the first half of the season with Joel Embiid looking every bit like an MVP frontrunner. However, a meniscus injury sidelined Embiid for roughly two months, and he never quite looked the same upon his return.
Philadelphia slipped to the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference, losing in the first round to the Knicks.
The 76ers know how important Embiid’s health is to any title run, so they’ll be monitoring him closely all season. He is listed as out for Wednesday’s game with “left knee injury management.”
With his star players out for the first game of the season, 76ers coach Nick Nurse has his work cut out for him. Getty Images
Embiid’s decision to head to Paris for the Olympics was peculiar, considering he probably wasn’t 100%. And given his injury history, Philadelphia desperately needed to bring in a third superstar following James Harden’s departure to the Clippers.
Paul George left the Clippers as a free agent, signing a four-year deal with Philadelphia worth $211.5 million, but he also won’t be available for this matchup after hyperextending his knee on Oct. 14.
The 76ers also resigned two key free agents, Tyrese Maxey and Kelly Oubre, while adding notable veterans Caleb Martin, Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon, Reggie Jackson and Kyle Lowry. Rookies Jared McCain and Adem Bonawill help fill out the roster.
Overall, this is a very deep Philadelphia team that looks better equipped to withstand injuries to key players.
Bucks vs. 76ers pick
We’ve seen the point spread completely flip due to the injuries, as the Bucks are now as high as a 3.5-point favorite after opening as 4.5-point underdogs.
However, we just detailed Philadelphia’s improved depth and Milwaukee’s shortcomings with Rivers as the head coach. Thus, backing the Bucks here isn’t necessarily a slam dunk.
Since Milwaukee doesn’t have the depth Philadelphia has, there’s a strong likelihood that Trent will replace Khris Middleton in the starting lineup.
Betting on the NBA?
Trent’s scoring prop is available at 11.5, but he surpassed this number in 15 of his last 16 regular-season games. He’s also exceeded this projection in three of his previous four games against the 76ers.
Lastly, he reached double-figures in both games during the preseason when logging at least 20 minutes.
Trent averaged a career-high 18 points per game just three years ago with the Raptors, and with Middleton unavailable, he should have enough usage and minutes to go over his scoring prop.
Best bet: Gary Trent Jr. over 11.5 points (-121, Caesars)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
