New data shows dip in major crimes in NYC
The Big Apple saw a 2% drop in major crime in the first few months of the fiscal year — along with a dip in transit crime, an early peek at Mayor Eric Adams’ annual report revealed.
The Adams administration is expected to tout a 7% drop in transit crime, a 9% reduction in car thefts, 3% fewer grand larcenies, a 4.8% decrease in robberies and a 2.8% dip in burglaries from July to October of last year compared to the same time period in 2023, according to a City Hall source.
“Our administration is focused on making New York City the best place to raise a family, and that means making our city safer and more affordable, as well as improving quality of life for working-class New Yorkers,” Adams said.
“From preventing crime in our parks to cracking down on car thefts to making the subway system safer, we are delivering on that mission and ensuring New York City remains the safest big city in the country.”
The leaked data comes from the Preliminary Mayor’s Management Report. The full report is set to be released Thursday afternoon and will provide a report card for city services.
“The data shows that there were fewer victims of major crimes from July to October — and thousands fewer victims of major crimes in the entire year as overall crime was down in 2024 — but we remain focused on the work that still needs to be done to continue to ensure New Yorkers both are safe and feel safe,” Adams said.
The announcement comes as New Yorkers are reeling from gruesome crimes that captured headlines and put Big Apple residents on high alert.
Last month, a sleeping subway rider burned to death on an F train in Coney Island after a madman threw a lit match onto her, causing her to burst into flames on a Sunday morning.
A madman used a hammer to bash a teen’s teeth after the victim refused to give up his seat for a woman on a D train in the Bronx Monday, cops said.
That same day, a vagrant with two open cases was arrested for allegedly throwing a female straphanger into an incoming A train in Manhattan, according to cops.
While data over the past three or four years might show city subway crime slowing or staying the same, the same data shows total subway violence is up over the past 10 years, according to a study by Aaron Chalfin, a criminology professor at the University of Pennsylvania.
“I think when you see news stories that say violent crime has been pretty constant, it’s probably because people are referencing the last couple years, where things have kind of evened out a little bit. But over the longer span, we do see the violence coming up,” he told The Post.
On a per-rider basis, violent crimes — which include murder, rape, robbery and assault — have nearly doubled since 2014. Then, about one violent crime occurred per 1 million riders whereas in 2024, about 2.5 violent crimes per 1 million straphangers occurred, Chalfin said.
What he found most fascinating from his study is that assault crimes are driving the uptick in subway crime, and there is no “acquisition motive” behind the assaults.
“You see this with respect to homicides. It used to be that a lot of homicides were motivated by gangs fighting over illegal markets, robberies gone wrong, and today, a large, large share of the homicides are really interpersonal disputes that have no nexus to financial motives or just like a very tenuous nexus at best,” he explained.
Since 2009, subway assaults have tripled while instrumental crimes, such as robbery, have dropped, according to Chalfin’s study.
His data showed a very strong link between people who commit violent crimes and mental health and homelessness.
For part of his study, Chalfin analyzed NYPD data from 2023 to 2024. It showed that of the people who had been arrested in the subway four or more times with at least one of the arrests being for a violent crime, 80% were documented as having a mental health issue and 90% were homeless at some point.
“So I think there’s something going on even deeper than just what’s happening in the New York City subway.”
