Picks against the spread for every game
Every move you make, every step you take, I’ll be watching you.
You know it had to sting for Giants co-owner John Mara to watch Saquon Barkley rush for 255 yards and two touchdowns (70 and 72 yards) and compile an otherworldly 302 yards from scrimmage in the Eagles’ 37-20 victory over the Rams on Sunday night.
You know this because you watched “Hard Knocks” this summer on HBO and saw Mara tell GM Joe Schoen that Barkley was the Giants’ most popular player by far and that it would hurt his heart to see him end up with the Eagles.
Through 11 games, Barkley has 1,392 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns. He’s topped 100 yards seven times and 140 yards five times. He’s broken off runs of 55, 59, 65, 70 and 72 yards. It takes the Giants a quarter or more to match any of those plays.
Ironically, Barkley is making one Giants GM look good and that’s Dave Gettleman, at least in this one regard. Gettleman was criticized when he selected a running back No. 2 overall in 2018 but countered by saying he thought Barkley was a “gold jacket” guy. If Saquon keeps this up, he will be going to Canton on roller skates, to borrow a Bill Parcells phase.
The issue has gone beyond whether Schoen will be fired for the Giants’ pathetic 2-9 record, for his defiance of Mara’s wishes (if what was portrayed on “Hard Knocks” was what was really going on), or both, or if he’ll survive.
More than that, the real indictment of Schoen and coach Brian Daboll and their predecessors is that the Giants couldn’t figure out how to win while they had Barkley in blue. He had three 1,000-yard seasons and a 962-yarder for them around his multiple serious injuries, and for that he had the opportunity to play in a total of two postseason games.
So now the Giants travel to Dallas for a Thanksgiving matchup that rightly could be dubbed the Turkey Bowl. The Giants have lost six games in a row and scored an average of 12.3 points per game. The Cowboys broke their own five-game skid with a win at Washington but are 0-5 at home and have lost by an average score of 37.4-13.8.
The Cowboys have a worse injury situation but they’ll be the pick here because a day after several Giants said the team played soft vs. the Bucs, Daboll insisted they played hard. That doesn’t sound like much of an urgent call to improve.
The pick: Cowboys -3.5
Chicago Bears (+10) over DETROIT LIONS
It feels as if every week, the Lions blow someone out and I vow never to pick against them again, and then I do. Detroit has feasted on some bottom-feeders, but this is a huge spread against a historic division rival. And while the Bears have lost five in a row, three of those were by three points or fewer.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) over Miami Dolphins
How much weight do you want to put on the frozen-Fish angle? The forecast at Lambeau is 21 degrees, a real feel of 4 with 15 mph winds. The Dolphins faced much colder temperatures in last year’s playoff game in Kansas City. So I figure they’ll be able to handle that but not the Packers’ diverse offense led by Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs.
Friday
Las Vegas Raiders (+12.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Hard to lay this many points with the Chiefs when you consider only one of their 10 victories has been by as many as 13 points and none has been by more than that. While the Raiders QB situation (rusty Aidan O’Connell or bad Desmond Ridder) doesn’t inspire much confidence, this is a ton of points for an archrivalry game.
Sunday
Seattle Seahawks (-2) over NEW YORK JETS
Believe it or not, this pick isn’t totally anti-Jets. One day, Aaron Rodgers, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson and the defense will get it together all at the same time and everyone will wonder where the heck that’s been. It’s a pro-Seattle selection because Geno Smith has an abundance of weapons and will be motivated to stick it to the Jets.
ATLANTA FALCONS (+1.5) over Los Angeles Chargers
So the Chargers travel cross country for a 1 p.m. Eastern start after taking a physical pounding from Derrick Henry and the Ravens on Monday night, while the Falcons are coming off a bye? Doesn’t seem close to being fair but it’s a chance to profit on Drake London and Bijan Robinson & Co.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3) over Pittsburgh Steelers
The healthy trio of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins could be ready for its big breakout. With that in mind, I’ll fade my beloved trend of backing Mike Tomlin as an underdog (4-0 ATS this season and 65.8 percent for his career).
Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Vikings went 3-0 SU and 1-1-1 ATS on a three-game road trip and now return to Skol land, where they are 3-1 this season with the lone loss coming by two points to the Lions. The Cardinals are 3-2 ATS on the road and have won five of their past seven, making this spread feel just a tad heavy.
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Aside from double-digit losses to the elite Bills and Lions, every Colts game this season has been decided by one score. So this will be a sweat but I’m thinking there’s a little line value thanks to the Patriots scoring two late touchdowns in Miami after going down 34-0.
Tennessee Titans (+5.5) over WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
In Washington’s three-game skid, it has yielded an average of 29.3 ppg, this after giving up 22 to the Giants in a victory. So there should be some opportunities for the Titans to either play from ahead or enter through the back door.
Houston Texans (-5) over JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
It’s a bit of a mystery to me why the Texans aren’t scoring more points and winning more games with C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Nico Collins and crew. I’m not so down on them that I’d consider backing Mac Jones, who has put up 13 points in two starts.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+3) over Los Angeles Rams
Willing to take a few points with a rested, healthy Saints team against a visitor that just got pounded with 314 rushing yards. The return of Taysom Hill and elevation of Darren Rizzi as head coach have made a difference in New Orleans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) over CAROLINA PANTHERS
Carolina won two in a row before a 30-27 loss to the Chiefs, so they’re far better than the doormat they were for the first half of the season. Mike Evans had a modest 68 yards vs. the Giants in his return from injury, but his presence opens things up for Baker Mayfield, and the Bucs look as if they’re getting ready to make a big run at the NFC South title.
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) over BALTIMORE RAVENS
Saquon Barkley vs. Derrick Henry will be entertaining but could end up a wash. The Eagles have the edge with A.J. Brown against Baltimore’s 31st-ranked pass defense, and one extra day’s rest after both teams had rousing victories in Los Angeles.
Betting on the NFL?
BUFFALO BILLS (-7) over San Francisco 49ers
Josh Allen and the Bills off a bye against Brandon Allen behind a banged up offensive line? The spread is this low likely only because of the 49ers’ respected name.
Monday
Cleveland Browns (+5.5) over DENVER BRONCOS
It basically took a suspension of the laws of physics for the Broncos to cover on Sunday against the Raiders. Jameis Winston is an adventure. He’s unlocking the Browns’ dormant offensive weapons. And Myles Garrett was downright unstoppable vs. Pittsburgh.
Best bets: Packers, Falcons, Bills
Lock of the week: Packers (Locks 6-6 in 2024)
Last week: 6-7 overall, 0-3 Best Bets.
