Pollster Ann Selzer ‘reviewing data’ after setting off media firestorm with Iowa poll showing Harris ahead
Pollster J. Ann Selzer is “reviewing her data” to determine why her pre-election poll, which set off a multi-day media firestorm, inaccurately showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Iowa.
Selzer is “reviewing her data to determine why a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released just days before the election produced results so far out of line with former President Donald Trump’s resounding victory,” according to the Des Moines Register.
The shock poll showed a 7-point shift from President-elect Donald Trump to Harris from September, when he had a 4-point lead over the vice president (47% to 43%) in the same survey. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll released Saturday had Harris up 47% to 44 %, in a state Trump had carried easily in 2016 and 2020 and wasn’t considered a swing state in 2024.
Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., who conducted the poll, declared Harris had clearly “leaped into a leading position” ahead of Election Day.
Much of the media took her words as gospel, as pundits on MSNBC, CNN and ABC’s “The View” all celebrated the forecast. Even if it didn’t necessarily mean Harris would win Iowa given the polling average, a narrative spread that it could incidate a broader shift in the Midwest to Harris in more competitive states.
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(Getty Images/ The Bulwark Podcast via YouTube screenshot)
“If this is accurate, and if anybody is accurate, it’s likely to be Ann Selzer in the Iowa poll, if this is accurate it implies that Harris might be winning Iowa,” Rachel Maddow gushed.
“The View” panelists declared Selzer “always right,” and her track record was billed as “incredibly solid” on CNN.
Selzer had egg on her face when the Fox News Decision Desk called Iowa for Trump on Tuesday night with the former president holding a commanding lead.
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Trump supporters were quick to point out Selzer’s poll was wildly inaccurate.
“Congratulations to Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vance on their victory,” Deputy Political Director Alex Latcham said in a statement. “After four years under Kamala Harris, Hawkeye state voters are eager for President Trump to fix what Kamala Harris broke. Starting on Day 1, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance will help to ease costs, secure the border, and protect Social Security for retirees like Ann Selzer.”
“Enjoy retirement…,” Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita posted on X along with a screenshot of an article calling Selzer “the best pollster in politics.”
Selzer was forced to address the humiliating poll.
A Halloween display featuring an inflatable Donald Trump stands in Griswold, Iowa on Wednesday, October 16, 2024. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
“Tonight, I’m of course thinking about how we got where we are,” Selzer said in a statement.
“The poll findings we produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom did not match what the Iowa electorate ultimately decided in the voting booth today,” she continued. “I’ll be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that happened. And, I welcome what that process might teach me.”
Many others took to X with thoughts on Selzer’s poll:
A farmer shows support for Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump and a view on abortion on August 10, 2024, near Hawkeye, Iowa. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Shawn Carney, founder of 40 Days for Life, said the Iowa poll results show the consequences of an arrogant assumption that women are single-issue voters whose only concern is access to abortion.
“The media ran with this narrative because it’s what they wanted to believe was true,” Carney said in a statement to Fox News Digital. “It just shows how out of touch they are with what actually matters to Americans. For way too long, they’ve acted as a mouthpiece for the political elite, pushing stories that fit the agenda of those in power instead of reflecting the real concerns of everyday people. They tried to make abortion the only issue that women care about, despite clear signs that Americans are focused on things like economic stability, safety, and family. Last night’s results sent a strong message: Americans are rejecting the agenda the media tried to sell them.”
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Fox News Digital’s Brie Stimson and Andrew Mark Miller contributed to this report.
