Eagles vs. Chiefs picks, prediction, odds
Having just spent four days at Media Row in New Orleans, it is safe to say the novelty of Super Bowl prop bets has waned.
Prior to legalization in 2018, this week operated as a “hall pass” for media outlets to discuss odds. But the league has since embraced betting, allowing sportsbooks to pepper our television screens daily with commercials and parlays.
Consequently, the growing popularity has allowed oddsmakers to sharpen their skills. Props were always considered additional work, whether it was marquee games or the annual Super Bowl tradition. But now, the menus are lengthy every single day.
In my eyes, this trade-off has made it more difficult to find opportunities. The betting market is understandably tighter. However, with over one thousand props offered on the nation’s biggest sporting event, we can still uncover some value.
Saquon Barkley
The prop drawing the most action across all sportsbooks is Saquon Barkley’s 112.5 rushing yards. Out of principle, I have to bet the Under. I think he is a remarkable talent, but it’s really hard to surpass this amount.
First, Kansas City has a strong run defense and will obviously focus on Barkley. Plus, for the past two months, the Eagles have had the luxury of mostly playing with a lead, thereby creating a game script that has allowed Barkley to rack up yards in the second half. That may not occur against the Chiefs, if Philly is trailing.
Plus, KC is a competent offense that matriculates down the field and consumes clock. They rank fourth in average time per drive. Also, Patrick Mahomes ranks behind 27 starting quarterbacks in average air yards per pass attempt, which is the distance traveled of a pass until it reaches a target. That means the Chiefs typically utilize short throws, rather than deep ones. That eats clock.
Xavier Worthy
Another popular wager is the prop of 5.5 rushing yards for wide receiver Xavier Worthy. The speedster had two carries for 16 yards in the AFC title game. His prop in that game was 3.5, but I still like Over the new mark of 5.5 yards because he plays such a vital role.
Philly’s inside linebackers are a potential soft spot. Nakobe Dean is injured and will miss this game. Plus, Zack Baun is battling a groin injury. Also, in order to slow down their elite pass rush, it’s important to force the defense to guard the width of the field. In my eyes, that all means Worthy will be utilized for misdirection and other looks to keep Philly off balance.
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Long-shot play
I always focus on the bottom line. For example, for the life of me, I will never understand why anyone bets the coin toss. I am constantly searching for value, especially in the form of long-shot odds.
I think we have a fun prop with a +1300 payout that also seems plausible. The wager is whether Mahomes or Jalen Hurts will catch a pass. After all, the Eagles introduced “Philly Special” to our vernacular in the 2018 Super Bowl. And Tom Brady dropped a pass in that same game.
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Hurts did not catch a pass all season, while Mahomes caught his own pass after a deflection in the season opener. However, I think that helps this wager. That’s because the defensive coordinators for each team are so thorough and advanced. The offenses will need to utilize plays that are not already on previous game tapes.
Plus, it gives us action on every play from scrimmage. That’s exciting, even if the overall Super Bowl prop buzz has diminished.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
