Week 17 NFL player props, picks: Predictions for Sunday’s slate
It’s the end of December, and we’re looking at the final mad dash to the end of the regular season.
Football is on a strange schedule that features the NFL on Sunday, Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday and now again on Sunday, Dec. 29.
Quality of play will surely be a question to ask, just look at the Seahawks-Bears on “Thursday Night Football,” which was more woeful than anything else.
We’re wagering on two running backs this Sunday, with one being uber-efficient and the other anything but.
Week 16 NFL player props
Alexander Mattison over 44.5 rushing yards (-115, ESPN BET) | over 12.5 rush attempts -125 | 21+ +1300 (Bet365)
Alexander Mattison gets a cake walk matchup for running backs.
The Saints rank No. 31 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) against opposing rushing offenses.
Mattison is far from the best running back in the league, but he has been fed plenty by the Raiders in the past.
Sincere McCormick went down with an injury ahead of last week’s game and is out for the season, leaving Mattison and backup Ameer Abdullah as the lone answers to take carries.
Prior to Mattison losing the starting gig to McCormick, Mattison went over 12.5 carries in four games, averaging a horrible 2.69 yards per carry.
He is embarrassingly inefficient, but he does take the rock frequently enough to warrant a wager.
We’re going over 12.5 rush attempts and slamming Bet365 and Hard Rock’s line on his total carries, coming in at 13/1.
He has gone over 20.5 carries once this season, and the Raiders are still playing hard for some reason.
Betting on the NFL?
Bucky Irving 2+ touchdowns (+550, BetMGM) | 150+ rushing yards (14/1, Bet365)
I’m only interested in betting these long shot lines for Buccaneers star running back Bucky Irving.
Irving has a cake-walk matchup on Sunday against the Panthers; they’ve given up at least 100 yards in three straight games.
Irving is among the league leaders in yards per carry and misses tackles at an elite rate.
Carolina is the only rushing defense that is worse than the Saints, coming in at 32nd in DVOA.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
