Who are the frontrunners to be elected next pontiff after Pope Francis?
As Pope Francis, the oldest pope in over a century, continues to decline in health, speculation is percolating as to who will next be elected as the most powerful Catholic in the world.
The 88-year-old pontiff developed pneumonia in both his lungs over the weekend and will remain hospitalized as he battles the infection, according to the Vatican.
Technically any Roman Catholic man can be elected as the heir to St. Peter, though invariably one of the 253 cardinals from around the world will don the papal tiara.
After a pope’s death or resignation, a conclave is convened in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel, where cardinals partake in rounds of voting to determine the next head of the Church. Only 138 of the 253 cardinals will be able to serve as electors in the next conclave and no cardinals over the age of 80 can participate in voting.
That number was raised in December of last year by Pope Francis from 120, which by rule of Paul VI was the maximum number of cardinals who should partake as voters in a conclave.
With Pope Francis’s deteriorating health, several prominent cardinals are being eyed as his successor if the octogenarian takes a turn for the worst.
Here are the frontrunners to become the next pope, according to public reporting.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, Italy
The Vatican’s secretary of state, Pietro Parolin served in Pope Francis’ Vatican for 11 years and has become the favorite amongst bookmakers since last November, The Week reported.
Parolin is considered a moderate politically. He spent his career participating in the diplomatic wing of the Holy See, spending parts of his career in the Nunciature of Nigeria and Mexico. He was made a cardinal in 2014 by Pope Francis. Parolin would be considered an extension of the legacy of Pope Francis.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65, Democratic Republic of the Congo
President of the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar, Fridolin Ambongo Besungu made headlines when he rejected a controversial declaration of Pope Francis — with the papal blessing, no less.
The conservative Capuchin declared the doctrine of Fiducia supplicans — which allowed priests to bless unmarried and same-sex couples —- null and void on the African continent. Besungu was able to achieve explicit blessing from Pope Francis in an emergency meeting in 2023 shortly after the release of that teaching, the Catholic Herald reported.
A Besungu papacy would be seen as a sharp rebuke of the left-leaning principles of Pope Francis. The current pontiff made Besungu a cardinal in 2019.
Cardinal Wim Eijk, 71, The Netherlands
Willem Jacobus Eijk, a former medical doctor, is widely seen as one of the most conservative of the frontrunners.
In 2015, Eijk helped pen “Eleven Cardinals Speak on Marriage and the Family: Essays from a Pastoral Viewpoint” which staunchly opposed Francis’ endorsement of civil remarriages in the case of not receiving an annulment of the first marriage. Eijk wrote they are “a form of structured and institutionalized adultery.”
Eijk was also a critic of the current pope’s inability to combat a German Bishops’ Conference proposal that allowed Protestants to receive the Eucharist in Catholic churches. In an editorial, Eijk called the pope’s ruling on the matter “completely incomprehensible.”
Eijky was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2012.
Cardinal Peter Erdo, 72, Hungary
Former President of the Council of Bishop’s Conferences of Europe and a devout Marian, Peter Erdo has long been a figure of consequence in the politics of the contemporary church.
A conservative, Erdo has previously opposed the practice of divorced or remarried Catholics receiving the Holy Communion due to the doctrinal belief in the insolubility of marriage. Erdo has also been vocal about his opposition to European countries accepting refugees, stating that it is tantamount to human trafficking.
Erdo was made a cardinal in 2003 by Pope John Paul II.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, Philippines
Luis Antonio Tagle serves as the Pro-Prefect for the Section of First Evangelization of the Dicastery for Evangelization and as president of the Interdicasterial Commission for Consecrated Religious.
Tagle — dubbed the “Asian Pope Francis” — is considered to left-leaning politically and has been critical of the Church’s treatment of LGBT people and divorced and remarried Catholics. In a 2015 interview, he said the Church’s “severe” stance on gay people, divorcees, and single mothers, has done harm to the Church’s goal of evangelizing.
Tagle is just the seventh Filipino to be made a cardinal and would be the first pope to come from the Asian continent if elected. He was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2012.
Cardinal Raymond Burke, 76, United States of America
Raymond Burke is considered the leading arch-conservative in the church — a proponent of the Latin mass and a public critic of Pope Francis’ liberal tendencies.
The Wisconsin native and former archbishop of St. Louis challenged Francis’ willingness to allow divorced and remarried couples to receive the Eucharist. Burke has also challenged the Church’s new language around artificial contraception, gay people, and civil marriages as “objectionable.”
Burke was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2010.
Cardinal Mario Grech, 67, Malta
The current secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, Mario Grech is considered a potential moderate successor of Pope Francis.
He has previously spoken of the necessity to reach out to those who are ostracized from the Church due to their sexual proclivities or marital status. In a 2014 speech given at the Extraordinary General Assembly of the Synod of Bishops, Grech highlighted the Church’s need to maintain continuity of teaching while allowing for creativity in the methodology of speaking to the people.
Grech was made a cardinal in 2020 by Pope Francis.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, Italy
President of the Italian Episcopal Conference, Matteo Zuppi was born in Rome and served in the key position of archbishop of Bologna, Italy — making him an insider in Francis’ Vatican.
A favorite of Francis, Zuppi was asked in 2023 to carry out a high-profile peace mission in Ukraine — meeting with Zelensky on the ill-fated trip. That same year he was sent to the United States to meet with noted Catholic President Joe Biden.
He was made a cardinal by Pope Francis in 2019.
