Yankees vs. Dodgers prediction, odds, picks

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The Yankees are turning to Luis Gil with their backs against the wall. 

The rookie right-hander has been a sensation for the Bronx Bombers this season, but I’m not expecting him to work too deep into this game on Tuesday night in Game 4 of the World Series. 

Gil has quietly had a hard time pitching into the late innings in recent months.

Since the All-Star Break, he’s pitched six innings just once and hasn’t pitched into the seventh. 

In his only postseason start against the Guardians, Gil lasted just four innings and struck out three. 

It’s not getting any easier against the Dodgers. 

Los Angeles’ offense hasn’t been a world-beater through three games, scoring 14 total runs, but they’ve put up tough at-bats up and down their lineup, striking out just 17 times. 

New York Yankees pitcher Luis Gil (81) reacts as he walks back to the dugout after being pulled from the game during the 6th inning when the New York Yankees played the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday, September 28, 2024 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY. Robert Sabo for NY Post

The Yankees, by contrast, have struck out 31 times this far in this World Series.

Like that game in Cleveland, if Gil shows any signs of trouble on Tuesday night, expect manager Aaron Boone to have a quick hook. 

Boone used seven bullpen arms in Monday night’s game, but none of them threw more than 17 pitches, meaning it should be all hands on deck once again in Game 4. 

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Gil’s strikeout line is relatively low, with 3.5 punchouts (+120, BetRivers), but Yankees starters have had trouble hitting this number against this Dodgers lineup. 

Only Gerrit Cole has gone over 3.5 Ks – and even then, he only struck out four batters in six innings. 

It’s a good time to fade the Yankees’ rookie starter with the season on the line.

The play: Luis Gil under 3.5 strikeouts (+120, BetRivers)